(7:30 a.m.): Back after a little bit of sleep. Kids off are off to school.
Donald Trump is our president. The Iron Range is red. Minnesota Democrats kept the Senate, and the House is tied with two races going to recount.
Last night is best described as a shellacking. In a lot of local races (and for Dems across Greater Minnesota), this was “kick the bums out” mentality driving the election. Not calling anyone bums, of course, that’s a figure of speech. But incumbents and incumbent parties had a rough go at it.
Full results from the races we tracked below in the graphics. Will have analysis going soon, and a radio spot on KAXE later this morning.
(1:10 a.m.): Might be the last update for a bit here.
Warwas won both Mountain Iron precincts, both in Eveleth and Aurora.
This was a resounding win, currently a 12-point margin.
It’s shaping up to be a bloodbath for Democrats up north. Roger Skraba is clearing House 3A easily and 3B is closer than a lot expected, and not a DFL flip as of this update, so the House is still in play for Republicans.
Donald Trump was just declared the winner in Pennsylvania mid-sentence, and this feels like a real “throw the Dems out” election.
I’ll have a better analysis here soon. Time to feed the baby and check in on Rock Ridge School Board.
(12:30 a.m.): The question of write-in candidates is certainly being answered tonight. Longtime Eveleth Mayor Robert Vlaisavljevich lost his re-election bid by 19 points.
Adam Roen put up a late and very successful campaign that appears to have unseated Vlaisavljevich. Both incumbents in Eveleth won their re-election bids.
This has not a kind year to the old guard around the Range.
(Midnight, Nov. 6): Lot of updates here, but the most significant is that Cal Warwas will win Minnesota House 7B for Republicans, the first Republican since 1928.
I called the race with about 16% of the vote in, which seemed early, but Warwas at that point delivered wins in 4 of 5 Virginia precincts, a tie in Chisholm and wins in Gilbert, Buhl and Biwabik. Losing the cities of the Iron Range that quickly left an impossible path.
Now, with more 57% in, he’s increased the margin to more than 10 points.
I’ll wait for final results for my full analysis, but I thought coming into tonight that a DFL loss in the 3-5 point range would give them one more run in 2026, this time with a runway for a candidate.
I don’t see that as a possibility now, and this seat might be red for while.
Other races called since:
(10:50 p.m.): Hoooooo boy.
Karl Oberstar Jr. is the Gilbert mayor against by 46 votes. He edged out a write-in. I pointed to this possibility in our newsletter earlier, and questioned the fate of incumbents amid high engagement on the Range.
Our first race tells us a lot!
In the Biwabik City Council race, a slightly less shocking result. Bryan Lehman had a good run and it seemed one of Dan Berg or Patti Wallert were going to be unseated.
(10:30 p.m.): Another big win for Warwas 582-380 in Gilbert.
There’s virtually no path if the cities don’t carry Janatopoulos, and its a 16-point lead after two precincts, but two significant precincts, all things considered.
(10:20 p.m.): First results are in for Minnesota House 7B and Warwas carries Biwabik 306-273 (53%-47%) in a district Lislegard carried by 90-plus votes in 2022.
East Range was Lislegard’s home turf, and Janatopoulos would likely see more gains in the Virginia area, but this isn’t a favorable start if the DFL was hoping to carry over Lislegard’s winning coalition.
Virginia, Eveleth, Gilbert, Mountain Iron and Chisholm just become much, much more important to her in this race.
(10:10 p.m.): Results! About 31% from House 3A and incumbent Republican Roger Skraba with a strong first showing over DFLer Harley Droba.
Again, this is a district expected to stay Republican, but it’s margin could help tell us something about the Senate District 3 race in 2026, when DFL Sen. Grant Hauschild is expected to run for re-election.
(9:10 p.m.): No results from House 7B yet. Or 3A. Or even 3B. So it’s lining up to be the usual late rush of St. Louis County.
(8:30 p.m.): MinnPost’s Peter Callaghan with the tip of the night:
So that makes life a little easier later. Unless something drastically changes from past years, don’t expect St. Louis County or Iron Range results for a few more hours. Or at least the cities on the Range.
(7 p.m): Just messaged a spokesperson at Arrowhead Transit. The organization is doing free rides to polling places in its coverage area (map below).
No exact numbers but it’s been “significantly busier than normal” today.
I’m told some counties in southern portion have seen increases over 300% today.
Huge turnout rates keep on trending.
(6:30 p.m.): So no trip to Chisholm tonight: Rain and your car’s driver’s side windshield wiper deciding to stop moving don’t mix well.
Just went through the voting line in Biwabik around 5:30 p.m. and it wasn’t quite up to 500 voters yet. Population is less than 1,000 so trending toward solid turnout, and the stream was steady.
I made a quick trip past Virginia’s primary voting place at Iron Trail Motors Event Center, and a solid stream going in and out of there.
This might finally be an election where turnout actually matters in the end. In general, that tends to favor Republicans, but I’m still hesitant in House 7B, where I don’t have a feel on what Jantaopoulos and her on-the-ground fundraising machine will turn out in the end.
Jerry here:
We’ll have more frequent (and better) updates coming this evening as the work days wraps up. So stay tuned here or follow along on social media. We sent out a newsletter today breaking down what we have in store for the day.
Final results will be up on X (@IronRangeToday) and Facebook (Iron Range Today) as they come in. I’ll be here and on X (@JerryBurnes) throughout the night.
In the meantime, I want share a few resources that are my Election Day go-to sources for modeling and calling races.
For Minnesota, Aaron Booth does an excellent job on the numbers and maps. His predictions last night match what I’m hearing on the races we’re tracking: 7B is a toss-up between Lorrie Janatopoulos and Cal Warwas; 3A is Roger Skraba’s to lose and 3B is the easiest flip for Democrats — who he has maintaining the trifecta.
As he notes in the thread though, if Republicans flip the House in Minnesota, it might signal a strong showing for Donald Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Nationally, I lean on David Wasserman of Cook Political Report and his projections throughout the night. He also has a breakdown of election night coverage with Derek Thompson of The Ringer, one of my other common sense favorites on many things.
We’ll be back with more updates!
