Editor’s note: Polls are snapshots, not predictions. They reflect the opinions of a sample of voters during a specific period and are intended to measure current attitudes, not forecast election results. Voter opinions, campaign dynamics and turnout can all change before ballots are cast. This analysis piece is intended to break down those polls.
A set of new polls provide a glimpse into the mindset of northern Minnesota voters five months ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Polling focused mostly on top-of-the-ticket races and issues that consumed Minnesota politics over the past year, while also measuring potential voters on the economy and President Donald Trump.
With the state’s highest concern level over social services fraud, the region weighed in with the lowest approval rate, 23%, for outgoing Gov. Tim Walz. This according to polling by the Minnesota Star Tribune/KARE 11/Hubbard School of Journalism and Mass Communication Minnesota.
Statewide Walz had a 39% approval rating, falling below Trump.
The same poll asked potential voters on their opinion of Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the DFL-endorsed candidate for governor. In northern Minnesota, 37% had a favorable opinion versus 39% unfavorable and 23% with a neutral or no opinion.
Northern Minnesota is also bucking a national trend on the approval rating for Trump. The Minnesota polls shows 56% of potential voters approve of the president, but Trump loses nine points (47%) on his handling of the economy. Statewide his approval rating dropped to 41% and only 34% approved of his economic record.
Polling from The New York Times shows the president’s approval rating among white, working class voters has dropped about 14 points, while support of his economic strategy fell nearly 30 points.
This voting demographic has largely pushed Trump to two terms in office, and makes up the vast majority of Iron Range voters, who dramatically shifted their political alignment in 2024 after decades of inching in that direction.
Republicans have a lot of indicators from the broader northern Minnesota poll results, despite downward turns on the current economy. More than 600 miners were laid off last year. Some have moved on to other jobs. Few seem to blame the president for their misfortune.
The brightest of the bright spots is that 61% of potential northern Minnesota voters said they trusted Republicans more to reduce fraud. Only 20% of respondents felt major stress from price increases due to inflation, and half of the region’s polled voters supported U.S. military action against Iran.
For Democrats, Klobuchar led all her potential Republican opponents for governor, according to the Minnesota poll, but support lagged her previous Senate runs.
Republican candidates were largely met with little opinion from those polled in northern Minnesota. Mike Lindell (27%) and Michelle Tafoya (23%) had the highest favorable opinions, while voters said they didn’t recognize the names of front runners like the party-endorsed Kendall Qualls (48%) and Lisa Demuth (45%).
Still, Klobuchar faces an uphill battle in Greater Minnesota, even if she wins the statewide race. The general attitude toward DFL candidates in the Minnesota poll opens up the possibility voters simply go by party in November.
The senator defeated Republican Royce White in 2024, a controversial firebrand-type candidate, pulling in 56% of the vote. In Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District that same year, which includes the Iron Range, White carried the majority with 49% to Klobuchar’s 47%. It was a seven-point drop-off for the senator in the district from her 2018 victory.
Candidates in the DFL primary seeking to replace Sen. Tina Smith also drew a mixed bag from northern Minnesota.
Congresswoman Angie Craig drew a 34% unfavorable rating, but 36% had a neutral or no opinion and 17% favorable. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan carried a 36% unfavorable, 21% favorable and 25% had a neutral or no opinion, showing voters are generally separating her from the Walz administration’s handling of fraud.
Polling in Minnesota was not available for local state House or Senate races.
